Can psychiatrists predict the one-year outcome of schizophrenia?

Following an introduction on the determinants of the outcome of schizophrenia and review of some prediction studies, this paper presents the results of prognostic statements made for 88 first onset schizophrenic patients in terms of their duration of episode, length of stay in hospital, occupational capacity and functioning in the family. Predicted outcome was compared with the actual results after one year. Clinical judges were found to make reasonably accurate predictions about the short term outcome of schizophrenia and their statements were better than chance agreements.