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Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries
Giuseppe Amatulli1, Andrea Camia, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Via Fermi 2749, Ispra (VA), 21027, Italy. giuseppe.amatulli@gmail.com
The Science of the Total Environment
|March 19, 2013
Summary
Climate change will significantly increase forest fire danger in the European Mediterranean. Projections show a substantial rise in burned areas under future climate scenarios, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Forestry
Background:
- Climate change is increasing forest fire frequency and intensity globally.
- Weather patterns are critical drivers of extreme fire events.
- Understanding future fire risk is essential for effective forest management and policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate current and future forest burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) under climate change.
- To model historical fire weather conditions and project future fire danger.
- To assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on fire risk.
Main Methods:
- Modeled historical burned areas (1985-2004) using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI).
- Employed Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Random Forest (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) for modeling.
- Utilized the MARS model, which outperformed MLR and RF, with climate projections from the PRUDENCE project's HIRHAM regional climate model under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios.
Main Results:
- Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) proved to be the most effective modeling approach.
- Significant country-specific variations in regression equations and determination coefficients were observed.
- Projected increases in total burned area by 66% (A2 scenario) and 140% (B2 scenario) for the EU-Med region by the end of the 21st century.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is projected to substantially elevate forest fire risk in the European Mediterranean.
- The study provides crucial data for policymakers and land managers to develop climate adaptation strategies for fire-prone regions.
- Urgent action is needed to mitigate the escalating threat of climate-driven forest fires.
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