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Summary

This study introduces "real age" to better estimate infrastructure failure probability. Real age accounts for operational and environmental factors, improving upon traditional calendar age for asset management.

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Area of Science:

Environmental Engineering
Infrastructure Asset Management
Risk Assessment

Background:

Effective water and wastewater infrastructure management relies on risk assessment for prioritizing asset management decisions.
High-risk assets are characterized by a high probability and high consequences of failure.
Current methods for estimating failure probability often rely on calendar age, which overlooks operational and environmental influences.

Purpose of the Study:

To introduce and evaluate a novel approach using "real age" for more accurate estimation of infrastructure asset failure probability.
To address the limitations of using solely calendar age in predicting asset deterioration.

Main Methods:

The study proposes the concept of "real age," adjusting an asset's age based on its specific operational and environmental conditions.
This contrasts with the traditional method that uses calendar age as the primary predictor of asset failure.

Main Results:

Real age can be higher or lower than calendar age, reflecting diverse deterioration patterns.
The "real age" methodology offers a more precise estimation of an asset's probability of failure compared to calendar age alone.

Conclusions:

Implementing the "real age" concept enhances the accuracy of probability of failure estimations in asset management.
This approach provides a more robust foundation for optimizing decisions regarding water and wastewater infrastructure maintenance and replacement.