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Updated: May 13, 2026

Translaminar Autonomous System Model for the Modulation of Intraocular and Intracranial Pressure in Human Donor Posterior Segments
Published on: April 24, 2020
Ocular hypertension and the risk of blindness
Aukje van Gestel1, Carroll A B Webers, Henny J M Beckers
1*University Eye Clinic †Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht ‡Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Purpose:
To estimate the risk of blindness in patients with ocular hypertension (OHT) using an appropriate model and current empirical data.
Design:
A Markov model with data from a systematic literature review.
Methods:
A Markov model with 3 health states was built: OHT, primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), and unilateral blindness. Literature was searched for reports on conversion from OHT to POAG and progression from POAG to blindness, to estimate a range of annual conversion and progression probabilities. The model had a cycle length of 1 year.
Results:
The 15-year risk estimates ranged from 3.1% to 9.4% in untreated, and from 0.9% to 8.6% in treated patients with OHT. The ranges were the result of differences in patient populations, treatments, and outcome definitions in currently available empirical data.
Conclusions:
The best estimates of the 15-year risk of unilateral blindness in patients with OHT, based on the currently available empirical data and an appropriate model, show that the risk is <10%.
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