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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Published on: July 24, 2016

Anticipating land surface change.

Richard Streeter1, Andrew J Dugmore

  • 1Institute of Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 1XP, United Kingdom. richard.streeter@ed.ac.uk

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|March 27, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Early warning signals of land surface change, like critical slowing down, can be detected in tephra layers. These signals, observed in volcanic ash deposits, help predict abrupt shifts in ecosystems.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Geology
  • Sustainability Science

Background:

  • Human actions and natural processes can cause abrupt land surface state transitions, leading to natural capital loss.
  • Understanding these critical transitions is vital for sustainability science.
  • Flickering and critical slowing down are phenomena observed before threshold changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify early warning signals of land surface change in tephra layers.
  • To assess the potential of tephra layers as indicators of proximity to land surface tipping points.
  • To explore the use of tephra records for archaeology, sustainability science, and land management.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzing millimeter-resolution thickness measurements of tephra layers from A.D. 2010 and A.D. 2011.
  • Observing changes in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness within tephra data.
  • Correlating these statistical signals with vegetation patterns near soil erosion, cryoturbation, and deflation zones.

Main Results:

  • Rises in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness were detected in tephra layers, indicating critical slowing down.
  • These signals correlated with changing vegetation patterns near land surface change fronts.
  • Tephra layers provide a record of spatial vegetation patterns, reflecting proximity to critical transitions.

Conclusions:

  • Tephra layers contain early warning signals of critical land surface transformations.
  • These signals can be used to assess proximity to tipping points and identify 'near misses'.
  • Tephra analysis offers valuable tools for understanding past and predicting future land surface dynamics.