A non-equilibrium neutral model for analysing cultural change

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Archaeology
• Cultural evolution

Background:

• Neutral evolution models are common for analyzing cultural variant frequency changes.
• Existing models often assume constant population sizes and mutation rates.
• Analyzing cultural systems at specific time points requires flexible models.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a non-equilibrium neutral model for cultural evolution.
• To account for temporally varying population sizes and mutation rates.
• To assess the consistency of observed frequency changes with neutral evolution hypotheses.

Main Methods:

• Developed a non-equilibrium neutral model incorporating time-varying parameters.
• Analyzed the probability of observed cultural assemblages under neutral evolution.
• Investigated frequency-dependent selection effects on evolutionary trajectories.
• Applied the framework to a case study of early Neolithic pottery decoration.

Main Results:

• The model allows analysis of cultural systems at any point in time.
• The likelihood of an observed assemblage is a strong indicator of departures from neutrality.
• Frequency-dependent selection can influence evolutionary paths.
• Neutral evolution was found to be inadequate for explaining observed pottery decoration changes.

Conclusions:

• The developed non-equilibrium model provides a robust framework for analyzing cultural evolution.
• Observed changes in cultural variant frequencies can deviate significantly from neutral predictions.
• The study highlights the importance of considering varying population dynamics and selection pressures in cultural evolution research.