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Related Experiment Videos

A statistical method for evaluating suicide clusters and implementing cluster surveillance.

R D Gibbons1, D C Clark, J Fawcett

  • 1Center for Suicide Research and Prevention, Department of Psychiatry, Rush Medical College, Chicago, IL.

American Journal of Epidemiology
|July 1, 1990
PubMed
Summary
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This study found no evidence of adolescent suicide clusters in a populous US county. A Poisson mixture model suggests adolescent suicides may be random, independent events, aiding future surveillance.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Lack of a standard definition for suicide clusters impedes understanding and response.
  • Contagious communication of suicidal behavior requires investigation into underlying mechanisms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and apply a Poisson mixture model for assessing adolescent suicide clusters.
  • To establish statistical benchmarks for random suicide occurrences in a specific region.

Main Methods:

  • A Poisson mixture model was developed to analyze monthly adolescent suicide rates over 11 years.
  • 99% tolerance limits and 95% confidence intervals were generated for chance occurrences.

Main Results:

  • Adolescent suicide incidence data demonstrated a strong fit to a single Poisson distribution.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analysis indicated that adolescent suicides in the study area and timeframe were likely random and independent events.

    • Conclusions:

    • The study found no statistical evidence of adolescent suicide clusters in the investigated county and period.
    • The Poisson mixture model is recommended for cluster identification and surveillance of adolescent suicides.