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Updated: May 12, 2026
04:35
Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
Published on: July 3, 2020
Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis
Jun Li1, Douglas Crawford-Brown, Mark Syddall
1Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EP, UK.
Summary
Economic recovery after disasters like flooding is complex. This study introduces dynamic inequalities to model recovery, suggesting proportional rationing and focusing on transport and healthcare are key for resilience.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Disaster Management
- Regional Science
Background:
- Weather-related disasters significantly disrupt regional economies, causing demand-production imbalances.
- Existing models lack consensus on post-disaster economic recovery pathways.
- Input-output analysis is a common tool for studying economic shocks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a theoretical framework (dynamic inequalities) for imbalanced economic recovery.
- To apply this framework to a hypothetical flood scenario in London (circa 2020).
- To assess adaptation measures for regional economic resilience.
Main Methods:
- Development of a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery: dynamic inequalities.
- Application to a hypothetical London flood scenario using a macro econometric model for baseline projections.
- Analysis of recovery under specific loss assumptions (labor, service, other sectors).
Main Results:
- London's economy projected to recover in approximately 70 months under a proportional rationing scheme.
- Significant initial losses (50% labor, 40% service sectors) impact recovery timelines.
- Economic imbalance is expected to be persistent during the recovery period.
Conclusions:
- A proportional rationing scheme shows potential effectiveness for post-disaster economic reconstruction.
- Policies prioritizing transportation and healthcare recovery are crucial for effective economic resilience.
- Dynamic inequalities provide a valuable framework for understanding and managing post-disaster economic recovery.
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