Epidemiology of Paget's disease of bone: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secular changes

Several studies have suggested that the prevalence and severity of PDB have fallen in recent years. The magnitude of this trend and its globalization have not been well established.

The objective of this study is to estimate the pooled magnitude of the changes in the prevalence of PDB and as a secondary objective, to make up a world atlas of PDB prevalence.

A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE (1946 to 2013) and EMBASE (1980 to 2013) was the method used. Search terms included epidemiology, incidence, prevalence, cohort studies, osteitis deformans or Paget's disease of bone. Studies with incidence and/or prevalence rate for PDB were included. Two authors independently extracted the data using predefined data fields and quality assessment. A pooled analysis based on random-effects models was carried out for secular trends.

Twenty-eight articles documented the prevalence of PDB; four articles the incidence and two articles the rate of new referrals. The prevalence of PDB varied greatly between the different countries, from 0.00028% in Japan to 5.4% in the UK. There were available data on changes in prevalence from two different surveys over two different time frames in Europe and New Zealand. In all but one city (Turin), a drop in the prevalence of PDB was recorded (pooled OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.45-0.91).

The incidence and prevalence rates of PDB vary widely between populations but both have decreased in most regions over recent years. The changes are heterogeneous however and within countries, the largest changes have been in areas that previously had a high prevalence. The reasons for these changes remain unclear at present but are likely to be due to an interaction between genetic factors and environmental triggers which may differ in different regions.