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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 11, 2026

High-throughput and Comprehensive Drug Surveillance Using Multisegment Injection-Capillary Electrophoresis-Mass Spectrometry
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Methods for population size estimation of problem drug users using a single registration.

Peter G M van der Heijden1, Guus Cruts2, Maarten Cruyff1

  • 1Department of Methodology and Statistics, Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80140, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands.

The International Journal on Drug Policy
|May 14, 2013
PubMed
Summary

Estimating problem drug users (PDUs) in the EU can be improved with one-source capture-recapture analysis. The Zelterman regression model provides a robust estimate of 10,415 PDUs at risk of clinical hospital admission.

Keywords:
EstimationProblem drug usersSingle registration capture recapture

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Problem drug users (PDUs) are a key indicator for monitoring drug situations in the European Union.
  • Traditional estimation methods are being supplemented by alternative approaches like one-source capture-recapture analysis.
  • This analysis utilizes a single registration to estimate the PDU population.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the efficacy of two one-source capture-recapture models for estimating the number of problem drug users.
  • To assess the suitability of the truncated Poisson regression (TPR) and Zelterman regression models using clinical drug-related hospital admissions data.
  • To determine if these models can account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities.

Main Methods:

  • Application of two one-source capture-recapture models: truncated Poisson regression (TPR) and Zelterman regression.
  • Utilized data from the Dutch Hospital Registration (LMR) on clinical drug-related hospital admissions.
  • The Zelterman model was chosen for its robustness against unobserved heterogeneity, focusing on users with one or two hospital admissions.

Main Results:

  • The TPR model demonstrated a poor fit due to unobserved heterogeneity.
  • The Zelterman regression model estimated the population size at 10,415 problem drug users (95% CI: 8400–12,429).
  • This estimate represents PDUs at risk of clinical hospital admission due to medical consequences of drug use, with potential for subgroup estimation.

Conclusions:

  • The Zelterman regression model offers a promising alternative for estimating problem drug users, including diverse subgroups.
  • The method effectively accounts for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in capture probabilities.
  • This approach enhances the monitoring of drug situations by providing more accurate PDU population estimates.