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Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research
Camille Parmesan1, Michael T Burrows, Carlos M Duarte
1Marine Institute, Level 3 Marine Bldg., Plymouth University, Drakes Circus Plymouth, Devon, PL4 8AA, UK. parmesan@uts.cc.utexas.edu
Ecology Letters
|May 18, 2013
Summary
Ecologists should prioritize climate change adaptation over attributing specific biological changes to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Current evidence confirms ACC impacts, and adaptation strategies are available now.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Increasing policy demand for quantitative attribution of biological changes to drivers like anthropogenic climate change (ACC).
- Existing meta-analyses provide high confidence that ACC impacts wild species globally.
- Syntheses of observations, experiments, and models confirm regional climate change impacts on well-studied systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- Critique the productivity of detailed attribution analyses in ecological studies.
- Evaluate the feasibility and necessity of quantitatively estimating the role of greenhouse gases in ecological impacts.
- Advocate for prioritizing climate change adaptation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing global meta-analyses on ecological impacts of climate change.
- Synthesis of long-term observations, experimental data, and ecological models.
- Analysis of impediments to quantitative ecological modeling for climate change attribution.
Main Results:
- High confidence established that ACC impacts wild species generally.
- High confidence established that regional climate change impacts well-studied systems.
- Quantitative estimation of greenhouse gas contributions remains challenging due to complex interactions.
Conclusions:
- Detailed attribution analyses are not a productive focus for ecological research.
- Focusing on adaptation strategies is more beneficial given current understanding of climate change impacts.
- Numerous adaptation options are available and being implemented, despite uncertainties in precise attribution.
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