Verbal probabilities: an alternative approach

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Linguistics
• Decision science

Background:

• Traditional research quantifies verbal probabilities on 0-1 scales.
• This study explores how verbal probabilities map to specific outcomes within a given range.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the mapping between verbal probability expressions and specific outcomes.
• To understand how speakers and hearers interpret phrases like "certain" and "possible" in relation to outcome ranges.

Main Methods:

• Four experiments were conducted involving speakers and hearers.
• Participants associated verbal probabilities with specific values within defined outcome ranges (e.g., battery life, speed).
• Analysis focused on how speakers' and hearers' interpretations align with outcome distributions.

Main Results:

• Speakers associate "certain" with low outcome values and "possible" with high or maximal values.
• Verbal probability phrases generally indicate a preference for higher values within a distribution.
• The interpretation of "possible" can involve very low or very high values depending on the context and focus of interest.
• Hearers demonstrate an awareness of speakers' tendency to associate verbal probabilities with the upper end of an outcome range.

Conclusions:

• Verbal probabilities are context-dependent and refer to specific points within outcome ranges.
• Understanding the speaker's focus of interest is crucial for interpreting verbal probabilities.
• Hearers can infer outcome ranges based on speakers' use of verbal probability expressions.