Prognostic value of the Geneva prediction rule in patients with pulmonary embolism

Assessment of pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) and prognostic stratification are two widely recommended steps in the management of patients with suspected PE. Some items of the Geneva prediction rule may have a prognostic value. We analyzed whether the initial probability assessed by the Geneva rule was associated with the outcome of patients with PE.

In a post-hoc analysis of a multicenter trial including 1,693 patients with suspected PE, the all-cause death or readmission rates during the 3-month follow-up of patients with confirmed PE were analyzed. PE probability group was prospectively assessed by the revised Geneva score (RGS). Similar analyses were made with the a posteriori-calculated simplified Geneva score (SGS).

PE was confirmed in 357 patients and 21 (5.9%) died during the 3-month follow-up. The mortality rate differed significantly with the initial RGS group, as with the SGS group. For the RGS, the mortality increased from 0% (95% Confidence Interval: [0-5.4%]) in the low-probability group to 14.3% (95% CI: [6.3-28.2%]) in the high-probability group, and for the SGS, from 0% (95% CI: [0-5.4%] to 17.9% (95% CI: [7.4-36%]). Readmission occurred in 58 out of the 352 patients with complete information on readmission (16.5%). No significant change of readmission rate was found among the RGS or SGS groups.

Returning to the initial PE probability evaluation may help clinicians predict 3-month mortality in patients with confirmed PE. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00117169).