Early Adult Outcomes of Male Arrest Trajectories: Propensity versus Causation Effects

This study examined early adult outcomes of differing arrest trajectories across childhood through early adulthood that were identified in prior work for 197 at-risk young men. Early adult outcomes were assessed at ages 27-28 to 29-30 years. Predictive effects of arrest trajectory membership on outcomes were examined after controlling for various factors, including prior levels and early antisocial propensity. As early adults, both chronic offender groups showed poorer adjustment in terms of deviant peer affiliation, education, and work domains than did the Rare Offenders; High-Level Chronic Offenders stood out from all other groups in terms of mental health problems and physical aggression toward a partner. These effects represent plausible causal effects of developmental pathways of offending on the outcomes. Evidence for propensity effects on the outcomes was more limited. Theoretical and prevention implications are discussed.