[Pandemic 2009/10: reflections on the utility of the vaccination actions in Hesse]

In the state of Hesse (Germany) all vaccinations were administered either by the public health-care (ÖGD) or private health-care facilities and were registered by week and age group. In the following article, the benefit of the vaccination campaign will be looked at in terms of preventable consultations due to acute respiratory tract infections (AK-ARI). AK-ARI were registered with the nation-wide sentinel of the AGI. Scenarios regarding timing and age-specific coverage are modelled. The achieved timing and age distribution was compared to assumed ideal distributions, e. g., having achieved the final coverage 2 weeks before epidemic start or having applied the used vaccine exclusively for the most affected age group 5-14 years. The timing and coverage actually achieved (7% overall) prevented an estimated 1.4% or, respectively, 1.1% of the total consultation excess. With the same amount of vaccine but ideally applied at least 2 weeks -before the begin of the epidemic and exclusively to the age group of the 5- to 14-year olds, an estimated 13.9% or, respectively, 18.2% of the total excess could have been prevented. The simulated scenarios give estimations as to what benefit potentially could have been achieved during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Both the delayed successive access to vaccine and the not ideal age distribution reduced the benefit to about 30% of the optimum. These exemplary estimates underline the importance of timeliness and valid prioritising of vaccination campaigns, although footing on just one outcome. It appears beneficial to reduce uncertainties for a solid prioritisation by, e. g., timely extended surveillance. Short-term decisions and adoptions are likely for future campaigns, e. g., due to unexpected changes in the epidemic, demanding flexibility in the application management.