Scenario development as a basis for formulating a research program on future agriculture: a methodological approach

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Food Security Studies
• Socioeconomic Research

Background:

• Global food security faces complex challenges requiring forward-looking research strategies.
• Existing agricultural research priorities may not adequately address future societal and environmental demands.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify critical issues for future agricultural research by developing contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050.
• To highlight under-represented research areas, focusing on societal values, consumer influence, and policy formulation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized morphological analysis to construct five distinct scenarios considering economic, political, technical, and environmental factors.
• Engaged stakeholders and researchers in an interactive process to discuss challenges and identify research questions.

Main Results:

• Formulated six overarching socioeconomic and biophysical challenges for future agriculture.
• Identified research issues and questions, emphasizing societal values, consumer roles, policy, and conflict resolution.

Conclusions:

• The study identified novel, interdisciplinary research priorities for agriculture compared to other programs.
• The methodology, combining scenario development with stakeholder interaction, yielded unique insights into future agricultural research needs.