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Updated: May 9, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Scenario development as a basis for formulating a research program on future agriculture: a methodological approach.

Ingrid Oborn¹, Jan Bengtsson, Fredrik Hedenus

¹Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Box 7043, Ulls väg 16, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden, ingrid.oborn@slu.se.

|July 10, 2013

Summary

Future agricultural research must address global food security challenges by considering societal values and consumer roles. This study used scenario development and stakeholder input to identify under-represented research priorities for sustainable agriculture.

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Last Updated: May 9, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Area of Science:

Agricultural Science
Food Security Studies
Socioeconomic Research

Background:

Global food security faces complex challenges requiring forward-looking research strategies.
Existing agricultural research priorities may not adequately address future societal and environmental demands.

Purpose of the Study:

To identify critical issues for future agricultural research by developing contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050.
To highlight under-represented research areas, focusing on societal values, consumer influence, and policy formulation.

Main Methods:

Utilized morphological analysis to construct five distinct scenarios considering economic, political, technical, and environmental factors.
Engaged stakeholders and researchers in an interactive process to discuss challenges and identify research questions.

Main Results:

Formulated six overarching socioeconomic and biophysical challenges for future agriculture.
Identified research issues and questions, emphasizing societal values, consumer roles, policy, and conflict resolution.

Conclusions:

The study identified novel, interdisciplinary research priorities for agriculture compared to other programs.
The methodology, combining scenario development with stakeholder interaction, yielded unique insights into future agricultural research needs.