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Updated: May 9, 2026
13:04
Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
The neural representation of unexpected uncertainty during value-based decision making
Elise Payzan-LeNestour1, Simon Dunne, Peter Bossaerts
1Australian School of Business, School of Banking and Finance, The University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. elise@elisepayzan.com
Neuron
|July 16, 2013
Summary
This study reveals how the brain processes unexpected uncertainty, a key factor in rapid learning and adaptation. Findings show distinct neural representations for different uncertainty types, including unexpected uncertainty, risk, and estimation uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Neuroscience
- Cognitive Science
- Computational Neuroscience
Background:
- Uncertainty is fundamental to decision-making and learning.
- Unexpected uncertainty is theorized to drive rapid environmental adaptation.
- Neural bases for risk and estimation uncertainty are known, but unexpected uncertainty remains understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the neural representations of unexpected uncertainty.
- To differentiate neural encoding of unexpected uncertainty from risk and estimation uncertainty.
- To link distinct uncertainty computations to learning speed.
Main Methods:
- Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a decision-making task.
- Bayesian model-based analysis to isolate uncertainty computations.
- Examination of neural activity in cortical and subcortical regions.
Main Results:
- Unexpected uncertainty is represented in multiple cortical areas and the locus coeruleus.
- Distinct cortical regions selectively encode risk, estimation uncertainty, and learning rate.
- Evidence for separable neural computations underlying different forms of uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- Neural representations for unexpected uncertainty, risk, and estimation uncertainty are distinct.
- These findings support theoretical models of learning driven by separable uncertainty computations.
- The locus coeruleus plays a role in processing unexpected uncertainty.
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