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How to improve testing when trying to predict inmate suicidal behavior
1Correctional Service Canada, Canada.
International Journal of Law and Psychiatry
|July 16, 2013
Summary
Adding actuarial data significantly improves the predictive power of the Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) for suicidal behavior in male inmates. This combined approach enhances risk assessment in correctional settings.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Psychiatry
- Forensic Psychology
Background:
- The Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) is used to assess suicide risk.
- Predicting suicidal behavior in correctional populations is challenging.
- Integrating actuarial data may enhance risk assessment tools.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the SPS in male federal inmates.
- To determine the added value of actuarial data to the SPS for predicting suicidal behavior.
- To identify specific actuarial variables that improve prediction models.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of SPS scores and 10-year follow-up data for 518 male inmates.
- Identification of actuarial variables differentiating inmates with suicidal behaviors.
- Testing combined SPS and actuarial variable models for predictive capacity.
Main Results:
- Over 10 years, 13.51% of inmates exhibited suicidal behavior (suicide, self-harm, or serious suicidal ideation).
- Seven actuarial variables (e.g., age, prior behavior, personality disorder) improved SPS prediction for some behaviors.
- A superior predictive model for suicide completers was not developed.
Conclusions:
- The Suicide Probability Scale's predictive utility is enhanced by incorporating specific actuarial data.
- Actuarial data can refine the assessment of suicidal risk in male inmate populations.
- Further research is needed for improved prediction of suicide completion.
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