Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Climate change is predicted to alter infectious disease dynamics.
• Detecting climate impacts on human pathogens is challenging due to confounding socioeconomic factors and control measures.
• Existing research shows climate change affects disease occurrence in natural and agricultural systems, with outcomes varying by climate specifics and host-pathogen interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review research progress and identify knowledge gaps regarding climate change and infectious diseases over the past decade.
• To develop a predictive framework integrating ecophysiology, community ecology, and modeling for disease forecasting.
• To guide future research and monitoring of climate-driven disease emergence.

Main Methods:

• Literature review synthesizing findings from ecophysiology, community ecology, and modeling studies.
• Development of a conceptual framework to integrate diverse ecological and epidemiological data.
• Analysis of factors influencing host-pathogen systems and disease outcomes under climate change.

Main Results:

• Significant progress has been made in understanding climate-disease links, yet considerable research gaps remain.
• The outcomes of climate change on disease occurrence are context-dependent, influenced by specific climate variables and host-pathogen system characteristics.
• A predictive framework integrating multiple ecological disciplines is proposed to improve forecasting.

Conclusions:

• Continued monitoring of pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems is crucial.
• Integrating knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches can enhance predictions of climate-driven disease emergence.
• Proactive strategies are needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases.