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Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection
Yasushi Honda1, Masahide Kondo, Glenn McGregor
1Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Comprehensive Research Building D 709, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba, 305-8577, Japan, honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp.
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine
|August 10, 2013
Summary
This study refines a model for projecting heat-related mortality due to climate change, enhancing its accuracy and robustness for future predictions. The improved model offers more precise estimates of excess mortality under various climate scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Environmental health
- Climate change impacts
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Climate change poses significant risks to public health, particularly through increased heat-related mortality.
- Previous models for projecting heat-related deaths require refinement for improved accuracy and robustness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To enhance the fit, precision, and robustness of a previously developed model for projecting heat-related mortality attributable to climate change.
Main Methods:
- Utilized daily mortality and temperature data from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, USA, and European countries.
- Employed a distributed lag nonlinear model incorporating temperature lag effects up to 15 days.
- Projected future excess mortality using the Bergen Climate Model 2 (BCM2), SRES A1B scenario, and WHO mortality data, applying a counterfactual method.
Main Results:
- Calculated projected heat-related excess mortality for the years 2030 and 2050.
- The refined model demonstrated improved fit, precision, and robustness compared to the prior version.
Conclusions:
- The enhanced model provides a more reliable tool for assessing the future burden of heat-related mortality under climate change.
- The findings underscore the importance of accurate modeling for public health adaptation strategies.
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