Temporal changes in mortality risk associated with PM10 across 143 cities in 26 countries: a multicountry, multicity
Yongsoo Choi1, Garam Byun1, Honghyok Kim2
1School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
The Lancet. Planetary Health
|June 10, 2026
Summary
The link between particulate matter (PM10) air pollution and mortality has strengthened over time. This means higher PM10 concentrations pose a greater mortality risk today than in the past.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health Sciences
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Ambient PM10 exposure is linked to mortality.
- Temporal trends in this association and explanatory factors are not well understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate changes in the PM10-mortality association from 1979-2019.
- To determine if socioeconomic and environmental factors explain temporal variations.
Main Methods:
- Extended two-stage time-series design across 143 cities (1979-2019).
- Quasi-Poisson regression for city-specific estimates, pooled using random-effects meta-regression.
- Inclusion of socioeconomic and environmental factors to explain trends.
Main Results:
- Analysis of 23.2 million deaths revealed a strengthening PM10-mortality association over time.
- A 10 μg/m³ increase in daily PM10 was associated with 0.23% mortality increase in 1979, rising to 0.51% in 2019.
- Temporal patterns correlated positively with population aging and negatively with PM10 concentrations.
Conclusions:
- The impact of PM10 on mortality has increased, suggesting historical estimates may underestimate current health burdens.
- Continuous updating of air pollution health impact evidence is crucial for accurate risk assessment.
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