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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Published on: March 31, 2023

Near-term climate mitigation by short-lived forcers.

Steven J Smith1, Andrew Mizrahi

  • 1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA. ssmith@pnnl.gov

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|August 14, 2013
PubMed
Summary

Reducing short-lived climate forcers like methane (CH4) and black carbon offers only modest near-term warming benefits. Even maximum feasible reductions show limited impact on global temperatures by 2050.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Chemistry
  • Environmental Policy

Background:

  • Anthropogenic climate-forcing agents with short atmospheric lifetimes, such as methane (CH4) and black carbon, are targets for mitigating near-term climate change.
  • Previous strategies suggested significant warming reductions from targeting these short-lived forcers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the impact of maximally feasible reductions in methane and black carbon on global mean temperatures by 2050.
  • To compare the near-term climate benefits of reducing short-lived forcers with those of comprehensive climate policies.

Main Methods:

  • Climate modeling incorporating emission reduction scenarios for CH4 and black carbon from 2015 to 2035.
  • Analysis of uncertainties in carbonaceous aerosol emissions and their forcing impact.

Main Results:

  • Maximally feasible reductions in CH4 and black carbon are projected to reduce global mean temperatures by only 0.16 °C by 2050 (range 0.04-0.35 °C).
  • The actual climate benefit is likely smaller than estimated due to uncertainties and depends on historical aerosol forcing.
  • These benefits are comparable to those from a comprehensive climate policy, not substantially greater.

Conclusions:

  • Reductions in short-lived climate forcers provide a modest, rather than substantial, near-term climate benefit.
  • Targeted emission reductions of CH4 and black carbon yield climate benefits smaller than previously estimated.
  • The effectiveness of targeting short-lived forcers for near-term climate mitigation is less significant than anticipated.