[Predicting outcome in necrotizing enterocolitis with the score for neonatal acute physiology: a retrospective study...

To explore the value of the score for neonatal acute physiology (score for neonatal acute physiology, SNAP) in predicting outcome and risk of surgery of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC).

A total of 62 NEC patients in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of Zhejiang University Children's Hospital were reviewed from October 2001 to October 2011. All the patients were classified into surgery group and non-surgery group according to whether the patient had the surgical intervention. Also the patients were divided into death group and alive group according to the outcome. Data on gestational age at birth, gender, birth weight, early clinical manifestations, treatment and prognosis of all patients were collected. SNAP-II and score for neonatal acute physiology and perinatal extension II (SNAPPE-II) were calculated on the day of diagnosis.

Abdominal distension, which was seen in 91.9% of the cases, was the commonest early clinical manifestation. The next was residual and bloody stool. SNAP-II and SNAPPE-II score in surgery group (26.5,26.5) were higher than that of the non-surgery group (13.0, 13.0,P = 0.002, 0.006). And the same scores in death group (29.0,32.0) were higher than those in the alive group (8.0, 8.0) (P = 0.000, 0.000). Measuring the scores as a predictor of surgery, the area under ROC curve for SNAP-II was 0.745, and was 0.714 for SNAPPE-II. The area under ROC curve for SNAP-II was 0.916, and was 0.929 for SNAPPE-II.The best positive point of SNAP-II and SNAPPE-II for predicting surgery was 22 and 28. The best positive point of SNAP-II and SNAPPE-II for predicting death was 18.5 and 22.

The SNAP-II and SNAPPE-II score may be used to predict the prognosis and the risk of surgery in the NEC patients. The scores are also good predictors of mortality in the early period when NEC occurs.