Application of signal detection theory to perceptual-motor skills

A signal-detection paradigm was utilized to examine subjects' sensitivity to situational and sensory-motor stimuli in predicting motor skill performance. College-level and professional basketball players attempted uncontested shots from assigned positions on the basketball court. Before each shot was released, both the shooter and a passive observer were required to predict whether it would be successful. Signal-detection analysis revealed no evidence for greater sensitivity of the shooter over the passive observer or an idealized statistical predictor using only floor position as a prediction cue. Both shooters and passive observers were too optimistic when strong penalties were imposed for incorrect predictions of success.