Composite survival index to compare virulence changes in azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus clinical isolates

Understanding resistance to antifungal agents in Aspergillus fumigatus is of increasing importance for the treatment of invasive infections in immunocompromised patients. Although a number of molecular resistance mechanisms are described in detail, the potential accompanying virulence changes and impact on clinical outcome have had little attention. We developed a new measure of survival, the composite survival index (CSI) to use as a measure of the virulence properties of A. fumigatus. Using a novel mathematical model we found a strong correlation between the in vitro growth characteristics and virulence in vivo expressed as CSI. Our model elucidates how three critical parameters (the lag phase (τ), decay constant (λ), and growth rate (ν)) interact with each other resulting in a CSI that correlated with virulence. Hence, strains with a long lag phase and high decay constant were less virulent in a murine model of invasive aspergillosis, whereas high virulence for isolates with a high CSI was associated in vitro with rapid growth and short lag phases. Resistant isolates with cyp51A mutations, which account for the majority of azole resistant aspergillosis cases, did not show a lower virulence compared to azole-susceptible isolates. In contrast, the CSI index revealed that a non-cyp51A-mediated resistance mechanism was associated with a dramatic decrease in CSI. Because of its predictive value, the mathematical model developed may serve to explore strain characteristics in vitro to predict virulence in vivo and significantly reduce the number of experimental animals required in such studies. The proposed measure of survival, the CSI can be used more in a general form in survival studies to explore optimal treatment options.