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Separating temperature from other factors in phenological measurements
Mark D Schwartz1, Jonathan M Hanes, Liang Liang
1Department of Geography, UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, 53201-0413, USA, mds@uwm.edu.
International Journal of Biometeorology
|September 3, 2013
Summary
Phenological data from sugar maple trees reveal that microclimates significantly influence tree development, with temperature variations causing predictable shifts in timing. Background variation, likely genetic, accounts for 2.6 to 3.8 days of phenological differences.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Forest Science
Background:
- Phenological observations are key indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems.
- Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) exhibits plastic environmental responses, enabling separation of background phenological variation from microclimatic influences.
- Microenvironmental differences create spatial autocorrelation in phenological data across study areas.
Purpose of the Study:
- To differentiate phenological variation caused by microclimatic temperature gradients from background variation (e.g., genetic factors) in sugar maple trees.
- To quantify the relationship between air temperature and phenological timing in sugar maples.
- To estimate the range of background phenological variation in sugar maples.
Main Methods:
- Utilized phenological observations of sugar maple trees over two years (2008-2009).
- Applied Moran's I tests to analyze spatial autocorrelation in phenological data.
- Correlated phenological event dates with degree-hour departures from air temperature.
Main Results:
- Significant spatial autocorrelation in phenological development was observed across the study area, driven by microclimates.
- Within microclimates, phenological patterns were largely random, indicating dominance of in situ factors.
- Phenological events advanced by 0.5 to 1.2 days for every 100 degree-hours increase in temperature.
- Background phenological variation, independent of temperature, ranged from 2.6 to 3.8 days.
Conclusions:
- Microclimates play a significant role in the spatial patterns of sugar maple phenology.
- Air temperature is a major driver of phenological shifts, but inherent biological factors also contribute substantially.
- The study provides a quantitative estimate for background phenological variation in sugar maples, crucial for climate change impact assessments.
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