Predictive value of the four good prognostic features in DSM-III-R schizophreniform disorder

DSM-III-R divides schizophreniform disorder into 2 subtypes with and without good prognostic features. The 4 prognostic features have been selected based on the literature, and the presence of at least 2 should indicate a good prognosis. The predictive value of the good prognostic features was tested in a sample of 16 untreated patients with DSM-III-R schizophreniform disorder with known long-term outcome based on personal follow-up examination. No correlation between the presence of 2 or more features and favorable outcome was observed. Confusion, disorientation or perplexity at the height of the psychotic episode was the only feature consistently associated with a favorable outcome in this sample. The introduction of good prognostic features of schizophreniform disorder by DSM-III-R has been done without due consideration of the methodological problems of prediction research.