Recurrent IVF failure is associated with elevated progesterone on the day of hCG administration

During in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment, elevated progesterone on the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) administration has been reported to be associated with a reduced chance of live birth. It is not known, however, if the relationship is casual or causal. In the latter situation, one would expect the incidence of elevated progesterone on the day of hCG administration to increase with the number of IVF/embryo transfer (ET) failures. The aim of this study was to investigate if the frequency of elevated progesterone on the day of hCG administration is related to the number of IVF failures.

This retrospective, observational, cohort study included a consecutive series of 6673 IVF cycles. Subjects were categorized into one of three groups: Group I, no previous IVF/ET treatment; Group II, one previous IVF/ET treatment failure; or Group III, two or more previous IVF/ET treatment failures. The main outcome measure was the proportion of cycles with elevated progesterone (>6 nmol/l) on the day of hCG administration.

After adjusting for age, oestradiol level on the day of hCG administration and number of oocytes retrieved, the proportion of women with elevated progesterone on the day of hCG administration remained significantly different between the three groups: Group I, 16.8%; Group II, 31.7%; and Group III, 39.7% (p < 0.001).

Elevated progesterone on the day of hCG administration is more likely in women with recurrent IVF failure. Women with two or more IVF failures are twice as likely to have elevated progesterone on the day of hCG administration as women undergoing their first IVF cycle.