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Published on: August 26, 2018
Exploring agricultural livelihood transitions with an agent-based virtual laboratory: global forces to local
Nicholas R Magliocca1, Daniel G Brown, Erle C Ellis
1Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Plos One
|September 17, 2013
Summary
Rural land use is changing rapidly, impacting ecosystems and climate. Agent-based models reveal how population, environment, and markets drive these shifts, offering new insights into agricultural intensification and livelihood transitions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Agricultural economics
- Computational social science
Background:
- Rural populations face dynamic livelihood and land-use changes with significant ecological and biogeochemical consequences.
- Understanding local responses to global environmental and economic shifts is crucial for sustainable land management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a generalized agent-based model to explain rural land-use and livelihood shifts.
- To investigate the relationships between agricultural intensity, population density, environmental suitability, and market influence.
- To generate new hypotheses on land-use dynamics beyond existing theories.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a generalized agent-based model based on micro-economic theories of land-use and livelihood decisions.
- Simulated agricultural intensification patterns under varying conditions.
- Explored agent responses to environmental constraints, population pressure, and market influence.
Main Results:
- Model generated spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural intensification consistent with 'induced intensification' theory.
- Identified that interactions among environmental, population, and market factors can lead to diverse livelihood regimes.
- Revealed potential for multiple livelihood transitions with varying market integration.
Conclusions:
- The agent-based model provides a flexible framework for studying land-use and livelihood dynamics.
- Results challenge and enrich the classic understanding of agricultural intensity and population density relationships.
- The model serves as a virtual laboratory for generating and testing hypotheses across different land systems.
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