An improvement index to quantify the evolution of performance in running

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Human Performance Analysis
• Athletic Training

Background:

• Elite athletic performance improvements are often attributed to various factors like population growth, doping, and technological advancements.
• Previous research struggled to isolate the specific impact of each influence on performance metrics.
• Understanding these drivers is crucial for the scientific analysis of athletic development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel performance improvement index to quantify contributions from specific factors in track and field.
• To model annual top performances and distinguish the impact of societal changes, athlete demographics, and regulatory measures.
• To analyze performance trends from 1948 to 2012 and provide insights into the evolution of elite athletics.

Main Methods:

• Development of a performance improvement index based on useful work and modeling of annual top 25 performances.
• Establishment of a baseline index of 100 in 1948 for comparison.
• Quantification of influences including global effects, athlete demographics, Olympic cycle oscillations, drug testing, and technological changes.

Main Results:

• The performance index increased from 100 in 1948 to 110.5–146.7 by 2012 for running events (men's 100m to marathon).
• Global societal effects were the primary driver of improvement (16.2–46.7), with smaller contributions from African runner influx (3.6–9.3).
• Compulsory drug testing and automated timing led to performance decreases (-0.9 to -3.9 and -0.6 to -2.5, respectively).

Conclusions:

• Societal changes, industrial revolution, and globalization are key drivers of elite athletic performance changes since the 1890s.
• While global factors significantly boost performance, regulatory and technological changes can impede progress.
• The developed index provides a robust method for dissecting complex influences on athletic achievement over time.