Fixation probability of mobile genetic elements such as plasmids

Mobile genetic elements such as plasmids are increasingly becoming thought of as evolutionarily important. Being horizontally transmissible is generally assumed to be beneficial for a gene. Using several simple modelling approaches we show that in fact being horizontally transferable is just as important for fixation as being beneficial to the host, in line with other results. We find fixation probability is approximately 2(s+β), where s is the increased (vertical) fitness provided by the gene, and β the rate of horizontal transfer when rare. This result comes about because when the gene is rare, almost all individuals in the population are possible recipients of horizontal transfer. The ability to horizontally transfer could thus cause a deleterious gene to become fixed in a population even without hitchhiking. Our findings provide further evidence for the importance and ubiquity of mobile genetic elements, particularly in microorganisms.