Targeted social mobilization in a global manhunt

Area of Science:

• Social network analysis
• Human-computer interaction
• Collective intelligence

Background:

• Social mobilization leverages social networks for distributed tasks, amplified by modern communication technology.
• Applications include finding rare expertise (e.g., doctors in disasters) or locating missing persons.
• A key question is whether recruitment remains targeted or becomes a 'blind search' under time constraints.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate if targeted social recruitment is feasible under significant time pressure.
• To analyze recruitment strategies used in a time-critical, distributed task.
• To develop an analytical model for social-media fueled mobilization.

Main Methods:

• Examined data from the U.S. State Department's Tag Challenge, a 12-hour, 5-city person-finding task.
• Derived an analytical model for global social mobilization.
• Quantified the extent of targeted peer recruitment during the challenge.

Main Results:

• People consistently routed information in a targeted manner, even with increasing time pressure.
• The analytical model estimated that approximately 1 in 3 messages were targeted during the most time-sensitive phase.
• Demonstrated targeted social recruitment is effective at short temporal scales (under 12 hours).

Conclusions:

• Targeted social mobilization is effective even in highly time-critical situations.
• Findings support the development of viral incentive schemes for rapid mobilization.
• The '12 hours of separation' observation has implications for emergency response and political mobilization.