Prognostic factors in acute-on-chronic liver failure: a prospective study from western India

The profile of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has not been reported from western India. This study was undertaken to analyze the etiology and clinical profile of patients with ACLF and correlate these with outcome. Fifty-four consecutive cases of ACLF were investigated for underlying chronic liver disease (CLD) and acute insult and followed up for 6 months. Mortality, Child–Pugh score, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were recorded. The most common etiologies of CLD were hepatitis B (29.6 %) and cryptogenic (27.7 %). Prognosis was worse in patients with hepatitis B or alcohol as cause of CLD (mortality 79 %). Acute viral hepatitis A or E was the commonest cause of acute insult (33.3 %) and with statistically better outcome (60 % survival) as compared to sepsis, gastrointestinal bleed, or flare of HBV (survival 5 %, p < 0.05). On univariate analysis age, past history of decompensation, leukocytosis, serum bilirubin and creatinine, international normalized ratio, presence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, Child–Pugh score and hepatorenal syndrome were significant predictors of mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed a MELD score of >27 and presence of encephalopathy as independent predictors of mortality. Patients with ACLF had high mortality especially when they had underlying chronic hepatitis B or alcoholic liver disease. Presence of encephalopathy and MELD score were independent baseline predictors of mortality. Child–Pugh score was helpful for prognostication.