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The ability of analysts' recommendations to predict optimistic and pessimistic forecasts
Vahid Biglari1, Ervina Binti Alfan, Rubi Binti Ahmad
1Department of Accounting, Faculty of Business and Accountancy, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Plos One
|October 23, 2013
Summary
Growth companies use income-increasing strategies, while non-growth firms employ income-decreasing forecast management to meet financial targets. Both strategies aim to avoid negative forecast errors (FEs) efficiently.
Area of Science:
- Financial accounting research
- Corporate finance
- Capital markets
Background:
- Growth (buy) companies engage in income-increasing earnings management to meet forecasts.
- Non-growth (sell) companies exhibit different pressures regarding earnings management.
- Forecast Errors (FEs) are a key metric influenced by corporate financial strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether non-growth (sell) companies utilize income-decreasing Forecast Management (FM) to generate positive FEs.
- To compare the forecast error generation strategies of growth and non-growth companies.
- To examine the efficiency and opportunism underlying corporate forecasting behavior.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 6,553 firm-years from NYSE-listed companies (2005-2010).
- Empirical testing of hypotheses related to income-decreasing FM in sell companies.
- Application of the efficiency perspective to interpret corporate strategies.
Main Results:
- Sell companies do conduct income-decreasing FM to generate positive FEs.
- The frequency of positive FEs for sell companies does not surpass that of buy companies.
- Both buy and sell companies employ distinct yet efficient strategies to avoid negative FEs.
Conclusions:
- Companies adopt different, efficient strategies to meet forecasts and avoid negative FEs.
- The study highlights the complex interplay between informative and opportunistic forecasting.
- Findings contribute to the understanding of efficiency versus opportunism theories in financial literature.
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