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Linkages between common wheat yields and climate in Morocco (1982-2008).

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  • 1Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 18 avenue Edouard Belin, Bpi 2801, 31401, Toulouse Cedex 9, France, lionel.jarlan@cesbio.cnes.fr.

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Morocco's wheat yields fluctuate with rainfall. Large-scale climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) influence wheat production, offering potential for improved yield predictions.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Science
  • Remote Sensing

Background:

  • Moroccan wheat production is vital but highly variable due to unpredictable rainfall.
  • Understanding large-scale climate oscillations is crucial for managing this variability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the influence of climate variability on Moroccan wheat yields.
  • To identify key climate drivers and their impact on wheat production.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzed de-trended wheat yields (1983-2008) from 11 provinces.
  • Utilized meteorological data (rainfall, temperature), NDVI, atmospheric indices (NAO, SCA), and SST data.
  • Examined relationships between climate variables and wheat yields at provincial scale.

Main Results:

  • Confirmed significant relationships between rainfall/temperature and wheat yields at provincial scale.
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacts early-season growth, while Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) affects later stages.
  • Lagged correlations with SST variability (Atlantic Niño, Atlantic tripole) offer higher prediction lead times.

Conclusions:

  • Regional climate indices and variables provide valuable information for enhancing wheat yield prediction skill and lead time in Morocco.
  • Climate phenomena have complex and competing influences on wheat yields.