Timing and benefit of liver transplantation in acute liver failure

The case for using emergency liver transplantation in acute liver failure was made two decades ago by a series of single centre experiences. The development of models identifying a poor prognosis assisted the selection of patients for liver transplantation but none of these delivers both high sensitivity and specificity for prediction of death. Enhanced sensitivity favours the individual patient while enhanced specificity targets the pool of organs available at those who will derive greatest benefit. The non-transplant survival rates have improved considerably for certain cohorts of patients and these prognostic models have not been adjusted to reflect these changes. The presumption of transplant benefit can no longer be taken as established in paracetamol-related acute liver failure and a policy review is appropriate. In other scenarios, such as seronegative hepatitis and the phenotype of sub-acute liver failure, spontaneous survival rates remain low and the basis for liver transplantation remains sound. Outcomes after liver transplantation are improving but are not yet comparable to elective transplantation. The understanding of factors associated with failure after liver transplantation is improving but accurate definition of futility has not yet been attained.