Production output pressure and coal mine fatality seasonal variations in China, 2002-2011

The death rate per million tons (DRPMT) is considered as the key index to the quality of coal mine safety management. The index for 2002-2011 revealed a marked improvement in China coal mine safety management during the 10-year period. However, when seasonally adjusted, the 2002-2011 fatality data showed a strong seasonal variation trend. This was reasonably consistent for the 10 years, which suggests that it was always the weak link in Chinese coal mine safety management over that time. However, the overall annual decrease in DRPMT was not reflected by any noticeable improvement in the seasonal occurrence of fatal coal mine accidents in China.

This paper focuses on this issue, first by analyzing the seasonal fluctuation of fatal accident statistics, then by investigating whether there was a parallel trend in China production output pressure. Finally an error correction model (ECM) was established to analyze the relationship between seasonal fatality rates and the pressure to increase coal production output, and revealed a close relationship between the two.

Firstly, the finding of this paper can help coal mine companies arrange their production planning more rationally, and decrease the fatalities' seasonal variations. Secondly, this paper is also helpful for the government to improve their regulation policies, to control the frequency of seasonal coal mine disasters.