[Application of A(2)DS(2) score for predicting post-stroke pneumonia in elderly patients]

To investigate the risk factors for post-stroke pneumonia and assess the value of A(2)DS(2) score in predicting post-stroke pneumonia in elderly stroke patients.

The clinical data were retrospectively collected from elderly stroke patients from January, 2007 to December, 2012. A(2)DS(2) score was then assigned using the clinical information from the medical record. The ability of the score to discriminate between patients with post-stroke pneumonia and those without was quantified using ROC analysis. The calibration of the score was analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

A total of 131 elderly male stroke patients were enrolled in this study, among whom the incidence of post-stroke pneumonia was 29.01%. The independent risk factors for post-stroke pneumonia identified included moderate (P=0.0081, OR: 5.6089; 95%CI: 1.5663-20.0854) and severe (P=0.0048, OR: 44.4827; 95%CI: 3.1847-621.3126) neurological impairment, dysphagia (P=0.0005, OR: 7.5265; 95%CI: 2.4282-23.3292), and atrial fibrillation (P=0.0226, OR: 4.1778; 95%CI: 1.2221-14.2825). The incidence of post-stroke pneumonia ranged from 2.2% in patients with a A(2)DS(2) score less than 3 to 75% in those with a score higher than 8. The C-statistic of A(2)DS(2) score for predicting post-stroke pneumonia was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.784-0.911) by the ROC analysis. The A(2)DS(2) score was well calibrated to predict post-stroke pneumonia in elderly patients by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (7.083, P=0.528).

The A(2)DS(2) score can be useful for predicting post-stroke pneumonia and for routine monitoring of high-risk elderly stroke patients in the clinical setting.