Cross-validation in association mapping and its relevance for the estimation of QTL parameters of complex traits

Association mapping has become a widely applied genomic approach to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) and dissect the genetic architecture of complex traits. However, approaches to assess the quality of the obtained QTL results are lacking. We therefore evaluated the potential of cross-validation in association mapping based on a large sugar beet data set. Our results show that the proportion of the population that should be used as estimation and validation sets, respectively, depends on the size of the mapping population. Generally, a fivefold cross-validation, that is, 20% of the lines as independent validation set, appears appropriate for commonly used population sizes. The predictive power for the proportion of genotypic variance explained by QTL was overestimated by on average 38% indicating a strong bias in the estimated QTL effects. The cross-validated predictive power ranged between 4 and 50%, which are more realistic estimates of this parameter for complex traits. In addition, QTL frequency distributions can be used to assess the precision of QTL position estimates and the robustness of the detected QTL. In summary, cross-validation can be a valuable tool to assess the quality of QTL parameters in association mapping.