Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 4, 2026

Selecting Multiple Biomarker Subsets with Similarly Effective Binary Classification Performances
Published on: October 11, 2018
Overfitting, generalization, and MSE in class probability estimation with high-dimensional data
1Biometric Research Branch, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Dr, MSC 9735 Bethesda, MD 20892-9735, USA.
Abstract:
Accurate class probability estimation is important for medical decision making but is challenging, particularly when the number of candidate features exceeds the number of cases. Special methods have been developed for nonprobabilistic classification, but relatively little attention has been given to class probability estimation with numerous candidate variables. In this paper, we investigate overfitting in the development of regularized class probability estimators. We investigate the relation between overfitting and accurate class probability estimation in terms of mean square error. Using simulation studies based on real datasets, we found that some degree of overfitting can be desirable for reducing mean square error. We also introduce a mean square error decomposition for class probability estimation that helps clarify the relationship between overfitting and prediction accuracy.
Related Concept Videos
Survival Tree
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
Probability in Statistics
An example of a simple event is a coin toss. The result of a coin toss is either a head or a tail. Here, head and tail are two simple events. These two simple events make up the sample space. Further, the probability of an event occurring falls within the range of 0 to 1. The probability of an...
Expected Frequencies in Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Probability Distributions
A discrete probability distribution is a probability distribution of discrete random variables. It can be categorized into binomial probability distribution and Poisson...
Generalization, Discrimination, and Extinction
Generalization occurs when a behavior reinforced in one context is performed in similar situations. For instance, a student who studies diligently for calculus and receives excellent grades might apply the same study habits to psychology and history, expecting similar results. Generalization shows how learning in one setting can influence behavior in...