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Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data.

Péter Hudomiet1, Robert J Willis1

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Decision Analysis : a Journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
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Summary

This study introduces a new model to understand uncertainty in personal longevity expectations. It reveals that while parental lifespan is overemphasized, factors like education and health behaviors are underweighted in predicting survival uncertainty.

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Area of Science:

  • Econometrics
  • Gerontology
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Accurate estimation of individual longevity expectations is crucial for financial planning and health-related decision-making.
  • Existing models often struggle to account for the observed patterns in subjective probability responses, particularly focal answers (0%, 50%, 100%).
  • The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) provides rich data on subjective survival probabilities and realized mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity.
  • To introduce and test the modal response hypothesis (MRH) as a framework for interpreting subjective probability responses.
  • To assess the predictive accuracy of the MRH model compared to existing methods.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an econometric model based on the modal response hypothesis (MRH).
  • Employed data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), linking 2002 subjective survival expectations to 2002-2010 realized mortality.
  • Compared the performance of the MRH model against standard models for subjective probabilities.

Main Results:

  • Subjective survival expectations from 2002 accurately predicted mortality outcomes between 2002 and 2010.
  • The MRH model demonstrated superior performance, providing more accurate estimates for low probability events and explaining focal answer patterns.
  • Individuals overemphasize parents' age at death, while underutilizing information from demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health, and health behaviors.

Conclusions:

  • The MRH model offers a more robust approach to analyzing subjective survival probabilities and understanding longevity uncertainty.
  • Beliefs about longevity are influenced by cognitive biases, such as overweighting parental lifespan information.
  • Factors like lower education, smoking, being female, and recent health shocks are associated with greater uncertainty about personal survival.