Books average previous decade of economic misery

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Literary Studies
• Sociology

Background:

• The 20th century saw significant economic fluctuations, including the Great Depression.
• Literature often reflects societal conditions, but a quantitative link to economic indicators has been less explored.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the correlation between literary sentiment and economic conditions.
• To establish a quantitative relationship between a 'literary misery index' and the economic misery index.

Main Methods:

• Derived a 'literary misery index' from English language books published since the Great Depression.
• Calculated a moving average of the annual U.S. economic misery index (sum of inflation and unemployment rates).
• Analyzed correlations using different measurement techniques and compared with other emotion indices, including robustness checks with German literature and economic data.

Main Results:

• A strong correlation was found between the literary misery index and the 11-year moving average of the U.S. economic misery index.
• This correlation remained significant across different methods for calculating the literary index and was superior to correlations with other emotion indices.
• Similar robust correlations were observed between German literature and the German economic misery index.

Conclusions:

• Published literature appears to reflect and average authors' shared economic experiences over approximately the preceding decade.
• This study provides a quantitative link between macroeconomic conditions and literary output, suggesting literature as a barometer of economic well-being.