Cancer-associated mutations in healthy individuals: assessing the risk of carcinogenesis

Mutations associated with hematopoietic malignancies have been repeatedly identified in healthy individuals. For certain cases, such as the t(14;18) translocation and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis, no clear link between the presence of aberrant cells and the later development of cancer has been established. Intriguingly, longitudinal studies suggest that these abnormalities persist for long periods of time in some individuals, but in others are transient in which they disappear completely. Here, we present a mathematical model, based on cellular replication limits, that provides a possible explanation for these seemingly contradictory findings. It proposes that the transient and persistent nature of the phenotypes depends on the stage in the differentiation pathway of a given lineage in which the mutation originates. Our work suggests that cellular replication limits may not only prevent cancer by aborting clonal expansion of cells, but also by influencing the fate of altered but nonneoplastic cells in healthy tissue.