Hierarchical tissue structure creates history-dependent barriers to clonal invasion

Tissues of higher organisms are maintained by hierarchies of stem and progenitor cell compartments regulated by homeostatic feedback. Somatic mutations generate genetically distinct clones whose evolutionary success depends not only on their fitness but also on the tissue architecture in which they arise. In previous work, we showed that this hierarchical organization creates invasion barriers that prevent advantageous mutants originating in downstream compartments from expanding unless their fitness exceeds a critical threshold. Here, we extend this framework to populations containing multiple competing mutant clones. We derive a general invasion criterion showing that the threshold for mutant expansion is determined by the equilibrium established by the resident clones and therefore depends on the evolutionary history of the system. Established clones modify the invasion barriers encountered by subsequent mutants, making clonal evolution history-dependent. The theory predicts competitive exclusion between clones entering the same compartment and shows that resident clones can prevent the establishment of later mutants. Using a model previously parameterized for murine hematopoiesis, we showed that our framework provides a mechanistic explanation for mutation-order effects involving JAK2 V617F and TET2 mutations in myeloproliferative neoplasms. Our results identify invasion barriers as a principle governing history-dependent clonal evolution in hierarchical tissues.