Frequency-dependent selection drives HBeAg seroconversion in chronic hepatitis B virus infection

HBeAg seroconversion is an important stage in the evolution of a chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection that usually leads to control of viral replication and a reduced risk for liver cirrhosis and cancer. Since current therapies for the HBV-associated liver inflammation that is known as chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Rarely induce permanent HBeAg seroconversion, there is a need to understand the mechanisms responsible for the purpose of identifying new therapeutic targets. Currently, the most widely accepted hypothesis is that the patient's humoral and cellular immune responses to the HBV initiate HBeAg seroconversion. Although we accept that this hypothesis cannot be excluded, we propose an alternative that is consistent with published data on HBeAg seroconversion. We postulate, as others have, that the HBeAg suppresses the immune response to the HBV. However, production of the HBeAg incurs a metabolic cost to the hepatocyte which reduces the replicative capacity of the virus. Consequently, HBeAg-negative viruses replicate faster than HBeAg-positive viruses. HBeAg-negative variants arise de novo; and when their frequency in the population is low they have a replicative advantage. However, they also benefit from the immunosuppressive effects of the HBeAg-positive viruses in the population. As HBeAg-negative variants increase in frequency and HBeAg levels fall, the immune system recognizes the HBV, and HBeAg seroconversion occurs as a consequence of frequency-dependent selection acting on HBeAg-negative variants. This hypothesis explains the wide inter-individual variation in age of seroconversion, the increased rate of seroconversion during anti-viral treatment and the phenomena of both spontaneous and post-treatment HBeAg reversions (in which patients cycle between the HBeAg-positive and negative phases of their infection).