[Simulation of water and carbon fluxes in harvard forest area based on data assimilation method]

Model simulation and in situ observation are the two most important means in studying the water and carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, but have their own advantages and shortcomings. To combine these two means would help to reflect the dynamic changes of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes more accurately. Data assimilation provides an effective way to integrate the model simulation and in situ observation. Based on the observation data from the Harvard Forest Environmental Monitoring Site (EMS), and by using ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm, this paper assimilated the field measured LAI and remote sensing LAI into the Biome-BGC model to simulate the water and carbon fluxes in Harvard forest area. As compared with the original model simulated without data assimilation, the improved Biome-BGC model with the assimilation of the field measured LAI in 1998, 1999, and 2006 increased the coefficient of determination R2 between model simulation and flux observation for the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration by 8.4% and 10.6%, decreased the sum of absolute error (SAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of NEE by 17.7% and 21.2%, and decreased the SAE and RMSE of the evapotranspiration by 26. 8% and 28.3%, respectively. After assimilated the MODIS LAI products of 2000-2004 into the improved Biome-BGC model, the R2 between simulated and observed results of NEE and evapotranspiration was increased by 7.8% and 4.7%, the SAE and RMSE of NEE were decreased by 21.9% and 26.3%, and the SAE and RMSE of evapotranspiration were decreased by 24.5% and 25.5%, respectively. It was suggested that the simulation accuracy of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes could be effectively improved if the field measured LAI or remote sensing LAI was integrated into the model.