Testing previous model predictions against new data on human papillomavirus vaccination program outcomes.

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Vaccinology

Background:

• National human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs, primarily for young females, have been implemented globally.
• Program implementation decisions relied heavily on cost-effectiveness models.
• Real-world data collection now allows for comparison with prior model predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the observed impact of Australia's HPV vaccination program on HPV16 prevalence with previous model predictions.
• To assess the accuracy of cost-effectiveness models used for public health investment decisions in HPV vaccination.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a previously developed cost-effectiveness model for HPV.
• Compared model predictions for HPV16 prevalence reduction in 18-24-year-old females by end-2010 with recently reported Australian survey data.
• Incorporated vaccine uptake rates consistent with national data (three-dose and two-dose coverage).

Main Results:

• Observed a 77% fall in HPV16 prevalence in Australian women aged 18-24 years by 2010-2011.
• Model predictions, based on 78% three-dose uptake, forecasted a 70% reduction.
• Model predictions, based on two-dose coverage, forecasted a 79% reduction.

Conclusions:

• A strong correlation exists between prior HPV vaccination model predictions and observed reductions in HPV16 prevalence.
• These findings provide confidence in the accuracy of models used for cost-effectiveness analyses.
• The results support the substantial public investment in HPV vaccination programs.