Vaccine R&D: past performance is no guide to the future

Area of Science:

• Vaccinology
• Pharmaceutical Research & Development
• Global Health

Background:

• Vaccines are crucial for preventing communicable and non-communicable diseases, especially in low-income countries.
• Previous studies indicated a decline in vaccine research success rates.
• The evolving landscape of vaccine development necessitates updated analyses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To update analyses on vaccine research success rates.
• To examine potential causes for the observed decline in success.
• To assess the ongoing impact of these factors on vaccine development.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of recent vaccine research success rates.
• Examination of product portfolio changes over time.
• Identification and evaluation of factors contributing to research decline.

Main Results:

• Success rates for vaccine market entry have declined to 1.8%.
• A significant shift in the product portfolio compared to earlier studies was observed.
• DNA vaccines showed high Phase I failure rates, and therapeutic vaccines had lower success than prophylactic ones.

Conclusions:

• Declining investment, evolving scientific challenges, and insufficient collaboration are key factors impacting vaccine research.
• While some issues have been resolved, interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral collaboration remains a critical challenge.
• Strengthening cooperation between academia, regulators, and industry is essential for future vaccine development.