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Updated: May 2, 2026
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Measuring Carbon-based Contaminant Mineralization Using Combined CO2 Flux and Radiocarbon Analyses
Published on: October 21, 2016
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Pre-site characterization risk analysis for commercial-scale carbon sequestration
Zhenxue Dai1, Philip H Stauffer, J William Carey
1Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544, United States.
Environmental Science & Technology
|March 15, 2014
Summary
This study assesses subsurface risks for carbon sequestration in Montana. Monte Carlo simulations indicate a high probability of successful injection and minimal leakage, guiding monitoring strategies.
Area of Science:
- Geosciences
- Environmental Engineering
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Commercial-scale carbon sequestration projects require thorough subsurface risk evaluation.
- Limited site-specific data necessitates using regional information for pre-characterization risk analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a probabilistic framework for evaluating subsurface risks in carbon sequestration.
- To assess key risk proxies including CO2 injectivity, area of review (AoR), migration, and monitoring strategies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized integrated Monte Carlo simulations to model subsurface processes.
- Estimated risk proxies based on regional data due to limited site characterization.
- Analyzed CO2 injectivity, AoR radius, migration into confining rocks, and CO2 detection probability.
Main Results:
- Achieved a >58% likelihood of injecting 1 Mt in 4 years with one well, increasing to >70% over 5 years.
- Determined a mean AoR radius of approximately 4.8 km based on a 0.1 MPa pressure change.
- Simulations showed no CO2 leakage through confining units; recommended monitoring well placement within 1.2 km of the injection well for detection.
Conclusions:
- The probabilistic framework provides valuable insights into operational and technical risks before CO2 injection.
- Results inform the detailed site characterization process for the Kevin Dome carbon sequestration project.
- The study demonstrates the feasibility of safe and effective carbon sequestration with appropriate risk assessment and monitoring.
